The most up to date election forecast produced today by the FiveThirtyEight polling organisation shows that, in the Bridgwater and West Somerset Constituency, Labour are in second position and therefore best placed to challenge increasingly unpopular Tory incumbent Ian Liddell-Grainger. The Forecast predicts a Tory victory with 43% of the vote but shows the opposition as divided as ever with 56% of the population NOT wanting him.
Labour Campaign manager Brian Smedley was asked for his interpretation of the polls.
“The latest Forecast shows what we predicted all along that the Lib Dem vote would collapse and has in fact halved from 28% to 14%. This shows that no matter what the Lib Dems claim in their literature, in their current shape they couldn’t even win a one horse race. We would appeal to Lib Dem voters , disillusioned and otherwise, to get behind the Labour candidate.”
“In terms of the Green vote it is increasing and doubtless many people are attracted by the fresh ideas that they are offering. But again they’re squeezed by the First Past the Post system and while people may think they’re voting against Liddel-Grainger, and of course are, a Green vote isn’t the weapon to unseat him. Sadly, the rise in the Green vote – no matter how minimal, and in this case up from1.6% to almost 5%, is preventing Labour delivering the hammer blow to the Tories.”
“The rise of UKIP remains a disappointment. Nationally their support has dropped from 19% to 11% as people see through them, that they’re just another bunch of Tories, although far more right wing ones, and just banging on about immigration and the EU to scare people. This forecast shows that locally they’ve bucked that trend and show a 16% support rate. Not enough to unseat Liddel-Grainger-but, conversely, enough to keep him in place. We have to hope that our constituency catches up with the national trend and the UKIP vote falls in line with the rest of the country and voters swing behind Labour if they want to say TTFN to ILG.”
Liddell-Grainger makes an appearance
Many people might have been surprised to see a full page promotional piece in the Bridgwater Mercury today which amounted to a Tory election broadcast posing as a news report. ILG has finally made an appearance in the streets of Bridgwater – however, flanked by numerous Tory blue rosettes for safety and in the secure shadow of former MP Tom King. Photos of King, Pretender, Tory hopefuls and 23 Tory rosettes might just cast a glimmer of doubt over the impartiality of the Mercury’s election coverage. Or maybe they didn’t think it through…..
Battle of the Billboards
Meanwhile across the constituency the poster war hots up. As Tories tend towards the ‘1 farmer 100 posters 1 vote’ scenario, Labour have been rolling out a spot of nostalgia for the 1945 election to focus people’s minds on who exactly set up the NHS and why it’s still important today, as Cllr Julian Taylor has taken to delivering poster boards to people from the back of his vintage open top Morris Minor to the strains of ‘Workers Playtime’ from his car radio, which can’t seem to tune into anything post 1951. If you’d like to witness this spectacle drop us a line and we’ll send him round with a poster board.
Another boost for Labour came with the publication of tactical voting suggestions for ‘left of centre’ voters on the Vote Smart website, which also urged people in the Bridgwater and West Somerset Constituency to vote for Mick Lerry the Labour candidate. Don’t take our word for it – click here.