The Conservatives are on course to lose their once safe seat of Bridgwater with former MP Ian Liddell Grainger running for the hills and the latest polls showing them down 30%. Their former coalition partners, the Lib Dems, who imported a little known Mendip councillor as what looks like a paper candidate, have made little impression with just a 0.6% increase. A 19% swing to the newly formed ‘Reform UK’ party is the main dent in the Tory vote, but the real winners are the locally strong Labour Party whose candidate Leigh Redman is polling at 28.2%, up 7.5%, less than 1% above the Tories who are on 27.7%, their worse showing in history in this area. The poll of polls by the Financial Times which shows these latest trends has also been boosted by the ‘Tactical Voting’ campaign fronted by Carol Vooderman, which also urges LABOUR as the tactical vote in Bridgwater, again dashing Lib Dem hopes of a win by the back door.
Asked to comment on the Polls, Labour Leader of Bridgwater Town Council, Cllr Brian Smedley, said “Conservatives and Lib Dems have become increasingly desperate around here. They’ve taken to social media with increasingly desperate personal attacks on the Labour Candidate which simply won’t stick and cheapen their own campaign. Leigh is out on the streets, knocking on doors and persuading voters. He knows the election is close but that he can win it by going that extra mile, by doing what he’s known for, and that’s working hard to deliver for the people he’s lived and worked with all his life. They’re the people that have been devastated by 14 years of Conservative Government, enabled by the Lib Dem coalition.”
Get the Tories out
Brian Smedley continued “This election is simply the ‘Anti Tory’ election. People have had enough after 14 years and 5 prime ministers and want to find the simplest way to get rid of them. Bridgwater has a strong Labour history and a large Labour vote and so that’s the obvious place to look. The ‘Stop the Tories’ tactical vote site shows Labour is that vote in Bridgwater. You can enter your post code in to find out here. It’s also clear that the Reform UK vote is the big mover here. That’s the Nigel Farage party and their only agenda is to become the new Conservative Party, so that battle is a bloody one. Meanwhile the real battleground is Tory-Labour, and it’s incredibly close.The Tories could still win. If you want to Tories out in Bridgwater (and that now includes Burnham and Highbridge) then you have to vote Labour. If you vote Lib Dem you might as well be voting Tory. If you vote Reform, you’re mainly voting to reform the Tories by moving them to the right. And if you’re still actually voting Tory…well, I wouldn’t bet on it..”
Swing to Labour
Across the county the picture varies with a 9-12% swing to Labour meaning the party can gain other seats where they’ve been historically well placed, noticeably Weston Super Mare and even Jacob Rees Mogg’s North East Somerset seat, and it’s a close call in Frome with Labour within 3% of the top place, but much of the county is looking better for the Lib Dems but with the swing to Labour and Reform, eclipsing the very minor 3% swing to the Greens, how people vote on July 4th (and before with postal ballots) will be more crucial than ever.